Bio-Economic Model

Price responses following reductions in supply due to the invader are likely to redistribute economic impacts to consumers. This market response is expected to be particularly strong due to the inelastic nature of the production system. Vigilance among growers and citizens is critical to prevent an introduction and further spread of the disease. Communication of pest risk assessments to the public is key to fostering a better understand of mitigation strategies. As risks are shared between consumers and producers, invasive species should be contextualized as a societal challenge.

I provided an overview on suitable methodologies for quantitative impact assessments and summarized our two studies on Xylella …

Xylella fastidiosa is one of the most dangerous plant-pathogenic bacteria worldwide. Regulatory measures were enacted in response to the detection of the subsp. pauca (Xfp) in Italian olives in 2013, but the current impact is nevertheless major. We developed a spatially explicit bio-economic model to compute potential future economic impact of the Xfp strain. Uncertainty on spread is accounted for by simulating different scenarios. The majority of orchards were found to be within climatically suitable territory. Even under slow disease spread and the ability to replant with resistant cultivars, projections of future economic impact in affected countries run in the billions of Euros. Our findings highlight the importance of minimizing disease spread and implementing adaptation measures in affected areas.